Did you know that in online poker, the objectively best cards only win about 12% of the time? In an analysis of more than 103 million hands, the other 88% of outcomes came down to the player – how they bet, how they bluff, and what they do with the hand they’re dealt.
“That’s all very interesting,” you might be thinking, “But what does it have to do with product marketing?”
More than you might imagine.
Just like in poker, we can’t always control the hand we’re dealt. But we can control the story we tell, and that story can completely change the outcome.
We see this play out in B2B sales and marketing all the time. Across more than 100,000 win/loss analyses carried out by Corporate Visions, 53% of buyers said that in the deals that vendors lost, those vendors could have won – and, importantly, could have won by doing something within their control. Not by adding features or cutting prices, but by telling a clearer, more compelling value story.
To understand why telling the right story matters so much, this article breaks down the psychology behind buyer decision-making and shows you how to apply it. Specifically, you’ll learn:
- The two forces that shape how buyers evaluate choices
- How those forces play out in different buying situations – from acquisition to retention
- Why situational messaging matters and how easily it can go wrong
- A proven “why change?” framework for motivating prospects to take action
Understanding loss aversion
To understand the first force behind buyer decisions, let’s start with a quick thought experiment. Imagine you’re given two options:
Which one would you pick?
If you’re like most people, you’d choose the guaranteed $900. A few go for the gamble, but the majority prefer the sure thing.
Now let’s flip the scenario. You’re starting from scratch again – no leftover winnings, no house money.
Which would you choose now?
Faced with this scenario, I’m guessing you opted to avoid the guaranteed loss and take the gamble instead.
Why this flip is irrational – and incredibly human
Here’s the twist: in both rounds, the math is identical. The expected value is the same. The only thing that changed was the framing. In the “gain” frame, people prefer certainty. In the “loss” frame, they’re suddenly ready to gamble.
This dramatic shift is a textbook example of loss aversion – the first major concept to keep in mind.
Loss aversion simply means that losses feel more painful than gains feel good. Daniel Kahneman, who won a Nobel Prize for this work, estimated that avoiding a loss is roughly twice as motivating as achieving a comparable gain.
What this means for your messaging
Given the power of loss aversion, you might be wondering if your messaging should focus on avoiding risks, rather than on positive outcomes.
Here’s the thing: loss aversion isn’t an either/or choice. It’s about contrast. When you set up the potential loss and then resolve it with a positive outcome, you create a sharper, more meaningful shift in your buyer’s mind.
In our work with research partners at Stanford and others, one theme is clear: fear or risk on its own isn’t enough – buyers respond best when you surface the stakes and show a clear, positive way forward.
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Where most messaging falls short
In our work with clients, we find that most messaging stays firmly on the “benefits and value” side. It talks about gains, improvements, and upside – and completely ignores potential losses.
If loss aversion is roughly twice as powerful as gains, then focusing only on the positives means you’re leaving two-thirds of your persuasive power untapped. Instead of relying solely on benefits, build contrast into your message – show what’s at risk and what’s possible. When you do both, you unlock the full force of your story.
Understanding status quo bias
To get to grips with the second major force shaping buyer decision-making, let’s run another quick thought experiment.
Picture yourself driving through your neighborhood when you spot a “For Sale” sign on a house you’ve always loved. Curious, you look up the listing when you get home. Sure enough, it’s just as charming inside as it is outside – maybe even a little nicer than your current place. And the price? Surprisingly doable.
So, are you going to buy it?
Most people would admire the home, feel a tiny spark of envy, and then move on. Very few of us would ever buy that house and put our own on the market, even if the upgrade is within reach.
